Alright, let’s talk about Prime. Just a couple of years ago, it felt like this drink was everywhere. Kids were literally queuing up outside shops, parents were shelling out a fortune on eBay, and schools were even banning it because of the frenzy. KSI and Logan Paul, two of the biggest names in the creator economy, absolutely nailed the launch. We saw revenue shoot to $250 million in year one, then an eye-watering $1.2 billion in year two. It was heralded as the fastest-growing beverage brand in history, and honestly, a lot of us in marketing thought they’d cracked the code.
Fast forward to today, and the picture is starkly different. The latest numbers out of the UK are brutal: sales down 70%, profits plummeting 90%, and their market share evaporating faster than you can say “hydration.” So, what the heck happened?
They Confused Virality with Loyalty
This is the big one. Prime achieved near 100% awareness among Gen Z, which is an incredible feat for any brand, let alone a new beverage. But here’s the kicker: their repeat purchase rate was a dismal 12%.
Think about that. Kids bought it once, probably to show off to their mates, to be part of the hype. But they didn’t come back for more because, let’s be honest, the taste wasn’t what kept them hooked.
Compare that to brands that have built actual loyalty:
- Liquid Death: 47% repeat rate
- Celsius: 52% repeat rate
- Coca-Cola: A staggering 68% repeat rate
These brands have a product that people genuinely want to keep buying. Prime, on the other hand, was a one-hit wonder for most of its audience. The “flex” wore off, and there was no real product-market fit to sustain demand.
They Built Distribution Before Product-Market Fit
Prime is in over 90,000 stores globally. That’s massive. But what they seemingly forgot is that distribution without genuine, sustained demand is just a really expensive way to store inventory. Every unsold bottle isn’t just sitting there; it’s costing them in slotting fees, shelf space rentals, and if it’s returned, even more in logistics.
They scaled at an insane pace before truly understanding if people actually liked the drink itself, rather than just the idea of owning a Prime bottle. It’s like building a mansion before you know if anyone wants to live in it – the overhead will crush you.
They Picked the Wrong Customer (or Misunderstood Them)
Prime’s initial target audience was clearly kids and teens. The problem? Parents are the ones buying groceries. And while kids might pester their parents for a trendy drink, parents are far more discerning.
Every controversy surrounding Prime – from caffeine concerns and lawsuits to the various WWE dramas – converted that initial awareness into avoidance, especially for parents. When a brand is constantly in the headlines for the wrong reasons, it erodes trust. Parents aren’t going to consistently buy products for their kids from brands they don’t trust. It’s a fundamental disconnect between who they targeted for hype and who they needed to win over for sustained sales.
The Brutal Truth: Creator-Founded Brands Often Have a 2-Year Expiration Date
This is a tough pill to swallow for many, but Prime’s trajectory highlights a common pattern. The 13-year-olds who fueled Prime’s viral explosion are now 15. And let’s be real, 15-year-olds are actively trying to differentiate themselves from what 13-year-olds like. And the new 13-year-olds? They’re looking for the next big thing, something that’s theirs, not something their older siblings were obsessed with.
What Prime fundamentally missed is what makes a beverage brand last. Look at successful exits in the beverage space:
- Liquid IV: Acquired for $525M, focused on function (hydration).
- BODYARMOR: Acquired by Coca-Cola for $5.6B, focused on athletes and performance.
- Vita Coco: $1.8B IPO, focused on natural health and wellness.
These brands built their empires on a clear value proposition beyond just influencer hype. Prime, on the other hand, was all about the hype.
The $1.2 Billion Lesson: Hype is a Sugar High, Quality is a Sustainable Business
Prime absolutely proved that creator-led distribution can generate mind-blowing revenue in its first couple of years – $1.5 billion is no small feat. But they also, unfortunately, proved that it can disappear just as fast. Losing 70% of sales in year three isn’t just a hiccup; it’s a massive crisis.
The core difference between a fad and a forever brand comes down to one thing: does it rely on who’s behind it, or what’s inside it?
You can leverage your audience to launch with a bang, no doubt. But for long-term success, you need a genuinely great product that stands on its own two feet.
So, for every creator and every brand looking to make their mark:
- Build for the long game. Think beyond the initial burst of excitement.
- Focus relentlessly on the product. Make something people truly want, not just something they’ll buy once.
- Earn loyalty, not just likes. Real engagement translates into repeat purchases, not just social media numbers.
Because when the hype inevitably dies down, as it always does, your product is all you have left. And if it can’t stand on its own, neither can your brand.
Want to ensure your brand builds lasting loyalty, not just fleeting hype? Book a free marketing call with X9 Media to create a marketing plan that sets you up for the long game.